India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change has been unveiled by the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh. According to this action plan India’s per capita GHG emission would at no point exceed that of the developed countries and that it has not committed to specific emission reduction targets or energy efficiency targets.

Efforts are afoot in Bangalore to make rainwater harvesting compulsory to address the problem of impending water shortage.

Haryana government has declared that under the new forest policy of the state, area under forest cover would be increased from 7.13 per cent to 10 per cent by 2010.

The only known habitat of one of the world’s rarest birds has been saved from destruction. Thanks to a compromise between environmentalists, villagers and Andhra Pradesh government, the 400-km Telugu Ganga Canal which will stretch from Srisailam in Central Andhra to Chennai, will be diverted around the only remaining habitat of the Jerdon’s courser, a nocturnal bird.

The humpback whale, nearly hunted into history four decades ago, is now on the “road to recovery” and is no longer considered at high risk of extinction.

The International Labour Organisation in its report “Green Jobs: Towards Decent Works in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon world,” says that changing patterns of employment and investment resulting from efforts to reduce climate change and its effects are already generating new jobs in many sectors and economies, and could create millions more in both developed and developing countries.

In a serious bid to emerge as the first “Carbon Neutral” state of Asia, Himachal Pradesh has prepared a multi-pronged strategy to minimise emission of greenhouse gases envisaging preventive and remedial measures for striking a realistic balance between “development and environment.”

A research by the scientists at Michigan Technological University’s School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science determined that moderate increase in temperature and nitrogen from atmospheric pollution actually improve forest productivity. They found that the trees grow faster at higher temperatures and store more carbon at greater concentration of nitrogen provided there is sufficient moisture.

The Forest Survey of India, alongwith Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, FDAs and independent agencies under National Afforestation Programme has treated with over 1.41 million hectares of land at a cost of Rs. 1,570 crores till last financial year.

Uttar Pradesh government is planning to release gharials in Betwa, Son, Ken and Ghagra rivers as the gharial sanctuary along the Chambal river has been deemed unfit for the safety of the species.

The beautiful Demoiselle cranes are back in the Thar desert districts of Rajasthan. The smallest and second most abundant among the world’s crane species, Demoiselle cranes or Kurjas are part of the desert love lore about Marwari migrants of yore who were forced to live separately from their loved ones due to compulsions of trade.

Pilibhit Tiger Reserve has finally got an in principle approval from the Project Tiger authorities.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) has turned down Ministry of Mines’ proposal to ease environmental regulations for mineral exploration in forests. MOEF’s tough stand may adversely impact investments in locating new mineral reserves in the country.

Wind power could produce 12 per cent of the world’s energy needs and prevent 10 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions within 12 years, according to a report of Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International.

Scientists at Centre for Aromatic Plants in Uttarakhand have successfully managed to grow Artemesia, which in near future is expected to provide a fillip to production of malaria related drugs in the state.

The old pugmark is transforming into a digital footprint. With real time information on tigers available through observation of tigers fitted with satellite collars, GPS collars and radio VHF collars, the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) is for the first time creating a system for a central database on tiger movement and analysis, especially real time information with a view to track tigers, monitor source population, movement patterns and also empower forest guards to make inputs into the centralised software.

Environmental Downs

Deforestation is leading to close to 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn are leading to climate change and possible extinction of 20-30 per cent of all species on Earth.

Raman Nautiyal
Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, Dehradun – 248 006

F orests and forestry provide a host of goods and services to the mankind, most of which are unrecorded and underestimated. The influence of forest based products, organized or unorganized, on general rural economy is too high to be ignored. However, there has been a general lethargy in estimation of the contribution of the forestry sector to the Indian economy, with similarities with other developing countries. Concerns about the quality of estimates constructed from the available forestry data have been expressed not only in the highest national forums, but also in various international forums. This is contrary to the fact that India has been a leader in statistical reporting since centuries, with Arthshastra and the famous Ain-e-Akbari taking the lead. Introspection and analysis is now important to build the future of statistical reporting in respect of the forestry sector of India.

Data constitute the building blocks of policy and research. With a shift in definitions of forestry-based indicators of development, introduction of a plethora of technicalities and increasing focus on forests as a resource to be conserved than exploited, the data needs have changed drastically. It has introduced the need of application of technology in reporting. Time constraint and urgent need of information requires data of high quality and integrity to be delivered with a minimum time lag, limiting to zero. How is it possible to ensure the data availability and a high quality of reporting simultaneously within a short span of time is the subject mater of discussion with the people who actually provide data. It is well known fact that we may have grand plans with grander intentions of implementing them; ultimately it is the lowest official who can make them or break them with the quality and reliability of figures he enters in the basic data form.

Global Importance of Data
Isolation is passé. With nature transcending political boundaries, environment has become a global concern. Any policy decision by a government on environment is bound to affect the whole world order. Needless to see thousands attending Bali, raising concerns of global degradation in environment and discussing ways and means to ensure the availability of resource for our future generations. Sustainability is the buzzword today.

Regular global assessment of forests is now being conducted by international organizations such as FAO of UN and International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Sharing of information by various organizations has become the order of the day as it helps a lot in validation. Why validation? At stake is the exchange of money in order to strike a balance between the consumers and producers with a common aim to check over-exploitation of scarce resources.

The most important of all is the issue of climate change followed by certification, with an interlinking between the two. Forest certification as followed by the international community is to ensure that forest products in any form come from sustainably managed forests. By linking it to the economy (i.e. import) the issue is becoming one of the major concerns of the consumers. This will definitely have a long-term impact on the export of forest products from uncertified forests. The entire process of forest certification in turn depends upon data transformed into precise and meaningful estimates. Moreover, the member countries of ITTO, which includes India, agreed to strive for an international trade in tropical timber from sustainably managed forests way back in 1990 and known as Year Objective 2000. However, an assessment was made in 2000 according to which the tropical countries had made considerable progress in formulating and adopting policies compatible with the objective but no significant progress was found in implementing these policies. A re-commitment was made towards achieving exports of tropical timber and timber products from sustainably managed sources, renaming this commitment as ‘ITTO Objective 2000’. It remains a central goal of the organization, supported by renewed efforts to raise the capacity of government, industry and communities to manage their forests and add value to their forest products, and to maintain and increase the transparency of the trade and access to international markets.

Coming to climate change and claiming carbon credits, again estimation has a very important role to play. A scientifically (statistically) sound methodology to estimate the growing stock, coupled with the will to measure and provide data and build regular estimates, is essential to take logical decisions in time for framing policies for the forestry and environmental sector vis-à-vis the international concerns about the same. Further, it is essential to identify the indicators that can convey the health of the sector in a concise and precise form. Say, fifteen parameters that can comprehensively describe the status of India’s forests.

In addition to the national interest, the commitments of the government of India to various international organizations have also to be fulfilled. One such commitments is to provide forest related data to the International Tropical Timber Organization, which then shares it with FAO and other interested parties. Being a signatory to the International Tropical Timber Agreement (ITTA) of the ITTO, India is required to file annual data on demand and supply, production and consumption and import and export of forest products. In absence of data it also becomes difficult to give suggestions or comment on the queries of International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), Revision 4, regarding forestry, logging, gathering of all non-wood forest products and support services to forestry and logging. Besides, data for FAO outlook studies is also required to be provided.

History of Forestry Statistical Reporting
Historically, the statistical reporting in respect of forestry sector in India (SRI) is conducted at the following two levels: States; and Centre including all 35 States and Union Territories (UTs). The state forest departments (SFDs) are the primary source of forestry statistics. At state level, again two data sources could be distinguished viz. (i) Working Plans; and (ii) Annual Administrative Reports. The Central (All-India) reporting makes use of data supplied by States and data collected from other central agencies.

The working plans date back to 1856, when the scientific forestry started in the country. Dr. Brandis prepared the first forest working plan for Pegu Yomo Forests of Myanmar. The next milestone was laid by D’ Arcy in 1891, who wrote a treatise on preparing Working Plans highlighting importance of stock-mapping with strip sampling. Still further, Ribbentrop prepared a Working Plan Code in 1929 for Uttar Pradesh using strip surveys and stock-maps. After Independence, Seth (1952) made further contributions to the working plan system. The second source of data from SFDs are the Annual Administrative Reports (AAR), which are as old as the working plans and include data on plan implementation, administrative aspects and financial outcome. Reports of Forest Divisions aggregated at the circle and state levels form the basis of AAR.

Until 1984, the Central Forestry Commission (CFC), working directly under the Central Board of Forestry, was responsible for the task of data collection and post-processing dissemination. As regards land use and allied data, the Directorate of Economics and Statistics in the Ministry of Agriculture brings out the Indian Agriculture Statistics on an annual basis, which contains land use statistics including forestry and wooded areas. In 1976, the National Commission on Agriculture (NCA) made a very thorough study of the forest statistical reporting system of the country, looked into emerging information needs, and made comprehensive recommendations for improvement of the forest statistics at the Central level (NCA – 1976). An important outcome was the Forest Survey of India, established in 1981 for the following two categories of primary data collection and reporting; (i) The State of the Forest Report which is a biennial publication based on nationwide high resolution satellite data; and (ii) National forest inventory based upon field sampling using sample plots covering 10 per cent of the districts of the country every 2 years.

National Requirements – GDP

The indicator of growth of a sector on a national (macro) scale is its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country and is expressed as an estimated percentage of the total GDP. This particular indicator has not been very encouraging. As shown below, the share of the forestry sector to the GDP of India has been on a steady decline since the 1950s, rising marginally during the early 1980s Table 1 and Fig. 2. Main reason for this trend has been the encouraging support given to conservation and not exploitation. A simple maxim followed by the Central Statistical Organization in determining GDP is ‘Cut and count’. With emphasis being now laid on conservation, the forestry sector is providing more services than goods. Thus, the GDP share is not the proper indicator to judge the growth of the forestry sector in the national scenario.

Fig. 1. The decadal trend of contribution of forestry sector to GDP of India

International Requirements

The reporting system followed by international organizations and stakeholders in the forestry sector can be divided into two main categories with sub-categories: removals and production on one side and trade on the other. While former contains information about removals from forests and production of goods by forest based raw material and also the comparison of same goods produced by materials other than those coming from forests, the latter mainly pertains to the trade in primary and secondary products coming from forest and wood based industries.

The data of forest products is provided to the ITTO in specially designed formats known as Joint Forest Sector Questionnaires (JFSQ) (Table 2) which are well-known as JQ. The JQ system is a continually under review and is dynamic in the sense that it evolves with the time and policies. JQ1 is designed for removals and production while JQ2 for import and export. The removals have a main head – round wood further classified into two broad heads, namely wood fuel, including wood for charcoal and industrial round wood (wood in rough). The later is further classified into three subheads, saw logs and veneer logs; pulpwood (round and split) and other industrial round wood. All these heads have two main sections, coniferous and non-coniferous.

The production has many parameters with broad heads being wood charcoal, chips and particles, residues, sawn wood, wood based panels, wood pulp, recovered paper, paper and paper board, etc. Due emphasis is also given on the nature of raw material – coniferous, non-coniferous and tropical. Thus, ITTO is not just about tropical wood but also of other forest products.

The major international statistical reports that are brought out are:
1. Annual review and assessment of the world timber situation (ITTO)
2. Forest Products (FAO)
3. Forest Products Annual Market Review {United Nations (FAO)}
4. State of World’s Forests (FAO)

The international community and their reporting systems are mainly concerned about the following:
1. Logs, sawn wood and veener, plywood
2. Secondary processed products
3. Lesser used species
4. Particle board
5. Fibre board
6. Wood pulp
7. Paper and paper board
8. Industrial round wood
9. Illegal logging issues

Some of the major broad definitions of the terms used in the international reporting systems are as follows:

The production side of the forestry sector also needs to be examined closely. Somewhere down the line we have taken the state forest departments as synonyms of the national forestry sector. Sector is a super set with state forest departments as one of the subsets of this superset. With the advancement in social and agro forestry, joint forest management, and the rising interest of business houses like ITC in forestry, the sectoral outlook needs to be well-defined. Confusing or limiting the sector with the state forest departments is also, to some extent, responsible for the pseudo-estimates as far as national economy is concerned.

Economic Weights of the Parameters Reported Upon

Based on the past experience of ICFRE in management of data related to the forestry sector, both collection and dissemination, the parameters covering the forestry sector of India can be divided into three main categories according to their importance in understanding the economics of the Indian forestry sector and their thematic contribution to the national economy, policy and support. Those that are important to be measured for economic considerations constitute level 1; ones who are important for policy framework, planning and management constitute level 2; and the third, level 3, are those that are required for refinement of information, support decision-making and provide, in tandem with the other two, a bird’s eye perspective of the general health of the forestry sector of our country (Level 3). While level 1 parameters are essential to answer some of the most important questions related to the economy of the forestry sector, level 2 are required for formulating the policy framework. Level 3 parameters are useful for relating various policy issues, if included in the database. Table 3 below gives the parameters included in the three categories:

Present Status of Forestry Databank – Parameters Recorded and Disseminated and the Status of Non-Response

The present status of the national forestry databank is not at all rosy. There are glaring and huge gaps in the databank that make the entire exercise of estimation and analyzing demand and supply worthless of being taken up. The Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE), which under a mandate from the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, collects, processes, validates and disseminates statistics pertaining to the forestry sector of India, publishes two bulletins related to the subject. One, the quarterly Timber/Bamboo Trade Bulletin (TBTB) contains the prices of eight important timber species and bamboo from 19 different markets of the country, while the other, Forestry Statistics India (FSI) is a biennial publication that covers 17 parameters across 77 tables in (Table 4). The table below gives the parameters on which data are collected and disseminated:

Trends in Statistical Reporting

Past Trends
Outturn of timber
Forests in India have been fulfilling the demand for timber for long. The contribution of the forestry sector to the national income of India and to its economy has been immense. The first attempts to estimate the total outturn of of timber (roundwood in rough, industrial roundwood removals, etc.) were made by the Department of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture,Govt. of India in the annually published India Forestry Statistics. Estimates of the outturn do have gaps, but they present a fairly good picture of removals of timber from the forest. The outturn of timber increased from 25,78,000 cubic meters in 1947-48 to 6714000 cubic meters in 1971-72. The following Fig. 2-5 gives the general trend from 1947 onwards upto 1972:

Fig. 2. Past trends in removal of timber- outturn (Source: India Forest Statistics)

Fig. 3. Past trends of outturn of roundwood (Source: India Forest Statistics)

Fig. 4. Roundwood as a percentage of timber (Source: India Forest Statistics)

Fig. 5. Recent trends in timber production in India

Current scenario
The total removal of roundwood in 2005 has been estimated to the order of 2800000 cubic meters. Of this coniferous comprised of 533000 cubic meters, while non-coniferous comprised of the remaining 2351000 cubic meters. Estimates of timber removals in India from 2004 and 2005 are:

The estimates for import of timber during 2004 and 2005 are as under:

The estimates of export of timber during 2004 and 2005 are as under:

Non-response
The non-response to the data requirements and demands of information is the main reason for underestimation of the contribution of the forestry sector of India to the national economy. The non-response of furnishing data varies from as low as 3.57 per cent to as high as 82.1 per cent. These figures are based on the number of tables reported and total number of tables in respect of state forest departments as required for Forestry Statistics India 2005, the flagship publication of ICFRE related to Forestry Statistics. The states have been identified as highly responsive, moderately responsive, highly non-responsive and minimal responsive based on these percentages. The table below gives the number of states in each category:

Rest of the states have submitted complete data. The estimates to be submitted to the various organizations depend upon the availability of data for the Forestry Statistics India.

An in-depth analysis of reasons for the gaps in data is essential to plan a mechanism that can yield results. When compared to agriculture, the statistical reporting in the forestry sector seems to suffer from an absence of a well-oiled network that can provide data on a sustained basis to a well-designed central database. The road from the top of the network right down to the bottom reveals some disturbing yet interesting facts about the statistical reporting system, which was very much in place and successful in providing data not very long ago. In fact, the very foundation of data within the state forest departments lies in the concept of Working Plans, which provide complete data, and also in the annual reports submitted on a regular basis to the state governments. One school of thought is that working plans provide a basis for sustainable management of forests, thereby looking into the issue of forest certification.

Most of the states report NA for as simple a parameter as revenue and expenditure. It is also not clear as to what NA stands for – Not Available or Not Applicable. The following are the possible reasons for NAs, even though data may be available somewhere:

1. Differences in terminologies
One of the major problems in getting the data from the field is heterogeneity in terms. The diversity in terminologies of parameters makes it very difficult for the field staff to really understand the meaning of the fields to be filled in. This generally results in fields being returned unfilled or marked as NIL or NA.

2. Weak or absent statistical cells
The reporting units in state forest departments are weak. In many cases, they just function in the name of a unit. Inadequate staffs, absence of facilities and computing prowess coupled with poor capacity building programmes have become the bane of statistical reporting. In some of the departments there are no exclusive statistical units. The reporting work has been delegated to certain offices that have taken the responsibility in addition to their main mandate, resulting in low priority given to this important work.

3. Heterogeneity in units
The units of measurement of like observations also differ from state to state. Bamboo, for example, is reported in notional tonnes, running metres, cubic metres, numbers and metric tonnes. Similar is the case with some other parameters. To add to the problem, there are no scientific conversion factors from one unit to the other. The net result is the figures are not amenable to mathematical treatment. In some cases the units are too subjective, as head loads. It is not clear as to what is the measurement of a headload. It is not unreal to assume that the weight or volume of a headload differs from state to state, may be similar for a group of states. Same is the case with bundles.

4. Lack in keeping pace with technology
The pace of technological advancement is much more than what the forestry sector has coped up with, and with inbuilt diversity. There are some SFDs that are networked at the range level, quite in contrast with absence of even obsolete electronic data processing devices at the division level. Where present, the analytical capabilities are low, resulting in a technological cloud where there is concentration of gadgets but a low knowledge base for their operation.

5. Identification of data sources
Data sources for each of the parameter being assessed should be identified and mapped to the national database. Inbuilt validation and conversion factors will help in automated estimation of parameters of interest.

6. Untrained and aged staff
The average age of the forest department staff deployed in the field is nearing fifty years. A good number of the staff is nearing retirement. At this age it has no inclination to take up computing and learn the nuances of technology. Moreover, their workload doesn’t inspire them to take up additional work.

Issues Presented for Resolution

Estimation of Illegal/Unrecorded Removal
Assessment of information needs
Major exercise of assessment of information needs is essential to be carried out for each state, synchronized for each region and finally synthesizing into those of the country. The final output that is required, once finalized, will then determine the course of reporting and estimation. The straight jacket solution of what is available and what can be the output may not work for the forestry sector as there are too many parameters and diverse outputs are required, which may be dynamic with time.

Setting Up/Strengthening Statistical Cells
Each state forest department needs to be equipped with statistical cells/units for supervising the reporting mandate. Mere setting up of cells may not be sufficient. They have to be well-organized units with trained and skilled manpower, and possibly of a separate cadre.

Assessment of functional requirement
Once established, the minimum functional requirement of these units needs to be assessed for each SFD as regards to the computing capabilities, databases and skill development. Ways and means have to be identified for fulfilling these requirements on a priority basis.

Homogenizing Manual
The diversity in the forest administration needs to be studied thoroughly and manual for data collection imbibing the unique features of measurement and analysis should be prepared. Detailed guidelines on data sources, what to measure and how and methodology of reporting should be a part of this manual. Adoption of internationally recognized ITC (HS) code for classifying forest products in the SFDs will ensure the correct mapping of production to JQ1 and JQ2.

Data mining and warehousing
A data mining and data warehousing project needs to be implemented in the forest department to fill in the gaps in data that have occurred due to slackness in reporting work. The filling of gaps is important to have a complete time series on data for forecasting and analyzing demand and supply, thereby enabling policy decisions on the sector. Relational databases, knowledge based expert systems, Geographical Information System (GIS), Distributed Query Capabilities over Internet, Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and other technological implementation will augment the speed of data mining programmes.

Capacity building
Once the detailed technical programme on forest statistical system is prepared, a constructive capacity building programme needs to be implemented in each of the thirty-five SFDs. The capacity building programme should be unique for a group of SFDs having similar lags in technology and knowledge base.

References

GIS INTEGRATED SAMPLING DESIGN FOR FOREST INVENTORY IN INACCESSIBLE AREAS

Introduction